Hormuz Crisis Recharts Oil Outlook as EIA Hikes Forecast
TL;DR Summary
The U.S. EIA sharply revised its oil-price outlook in its latest STEO amid the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with Brent trading near $94 per barrel and the forecast raising averages to $79 for Brent in 2026 and $64 in 2027 (up from a month earlier). The agency also sees U.S. crude output rising to about 13.6 mbpd in 2026 and 13.8 mbpd in 2027, contingent on the conflict being temporary and tanker traffic gradually resuming; if disruptions persist, prices and supply balances could move much more than currently forecast.
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