Talarico Surges to 9-Point Lead in Texas Senate Dem Primary, Emerson Poll Finds

Emerson College’s poll of 413 likely Texas voters shows state Rep. James Talarico leading U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett by 9 points in the Democratic Senate primary (47% to 38%), with 15% undecided, marking a shift from a December TSU poll that put Crockett ahead. Talarico leads among Latino and white voters, while Crockett has strong backing from Black voters; Crockett’s Black-voter support stands around 80%. On the GOP side, Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are in a near dead heat (27% vs. 26%) with Wesley Hunt at 16%, suggesting a May runoff if no candidate clears 50% in March. The Emerson poll also finds head-to-head matchups that favor Cornyn or Hunt over Crockett but show Talarico narrowly ahead of the Republican field; Texas voters’ top concerns remain the economy, with immigration dropping to No. 2 and threats to democracy rising. Trump’s Texas approval rating has slipped to a net +2.