Iran War After Strike: High Stakes, Uncertain Endgame

Brookings experts assess a post-strike Iran as a dangerous, uncertain turning point: while airstrikes have degraded leadership and capabilities, Iran’s regime may survive or fragment, and the country is likely to retaliate and broaden conflicts with regional targets. The analysis warns that regime change is not guaranteed and could trigger unintended chaos with spillovers to energy markets, Europe, Russia, China, Turkey, and India, complicating diplomacy and potentially normalizing unilateral force. As debates hinge on whether a deal, not regime change, will emerge, the piece underscores the need for civilian tools, legal norms, and multilateral cooperation, while scrutinizing U.S. war powers and the prospects for accountability and containment.