Stocks Bet on Higher Oil and Rates as War Clouds Gather

Geopolitical tensions push stock valuations to reflect higher-for-longer oil prices and interest rates; the S&P 500 is down about 8.7% from its January high and has breached its 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential 10–15% correction if tensions persist. Bearish sentiment is high, which could be a contrarian bullish signal if the fog lifts and markets stabilize or improve on any easing in Strait of Hormuz tensions.