Geopolitics as a Buy Signal: Markets Usually Rally After Crises

HSBC argues that major geopolitical shocks in the past 25 years have often been buying opportunities, noting that about 75% of crises fade and the S&P 500 tends to rise in the weeks after such events (roughly a 2% gain after ~22 days). With US economic conditions seen as “Goldilocks,” a Fed easing path with two rate cuts projected for 2026, and earnings likely to beat expectations, the market may rebound even as near-term volatility persists. The piece also flags indicators such as VIX backwardation suggesting oversold conditions, while cautioning that yields and risk assets remain close to a “danger zone.”