Kremlin rejects Western guarantees as Russia plans a contested summer offensive in Ukraine
ISW reports that Moscow rejects meaningful Western security guarantees for Ukraine, sticking to the 2022 Istanbul Protocol framework; Russia reportedly plans a limited Summer 2026 offensive in southern/eastern Ukraine, but reserves and weather constraints may limit its success. Frontline progress remains slow and concentrated around Slovyansk–Kramatorsk and Orikhiv–Zaporizhzhia, with Hulyaipole reportedly captured but not rapidly expanded; SpaceX’s block of unregistered Starlink terminals is hindering Russian operations; an assassination attempt targeted GRU deputy head Vladimir Alekseyev in Moscow. Ukrainian forces have lately advanced near Borova, while Russian drones and missiles continue to strike infrastructure across Ukraine.