Iran tightens grip as protests loom and regional tensions rise
Iran is expected to intensify security around upcoming protest dates—especially the end of the 40‑day mourning on February 17 and Nowruz on March 20—while internet shutdowns continue to curb dissent and cost the economy, potentially straining security forces. The regime is worrying about Kurdish militancy in the northwest and has reportedly mobilized border security, with Iraqi militias possibly deployed to Iran to aid crackdowns. A January 16 protest in Zahedan signaled ongoing dissent, though demonstrations have yet to broaden nationwide. In Syria, the Assad regime began a limited Deir Hafer operation against SDF-held territory east of Aleppo, and Damascus issued a decree recognizing Kurdish rights and Nowruz, aimed at pushing toward negotiations with the SDF; the US is pushing for de-escalation. Overall, Iran faces heightened securitization with regional spillovers and rising political risk.