UNH: Margin Pressure Now, AI-Driven Efficiency to Drive Long-Term Upside
UnitedHealth Group remains a contrarian buy after a selloff driven by Medicare Advantage margin concerns; 2026 revenue is expected to fall about 2% while operating income tops $24 billion due to cost controls and AI-led efficiency gains. Near-term EPS growth is about 8.6%, but management targets a long-term adjusted EPS CAGR of 13–16%, suggesting meaningful upside if multiple expands to a forward P/E around 15.8. With strong cash flow funding dividends, buybacks, and roughly $1.5 billion a year in tech/AI investments, the key risks are medical cost volatility and ongoing Medicare funding pressures.