The Controversial Saga of Wagner and Belarus

Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner forces have defied Russian President Putin by refusing to sign any agreement to operate under the Russian defense ministry, leading to the announcement that Wagner will no longer fight in Ukraine. Work is underway to construct a new base for Wagner in Belarus, while there are reports of detentions and investigations regarding the Wagner coup attempt. The Russian government is seeking to replace Wagner leadership in the Central African Republic, but it remains unclear how the transition will be managed. Wagner's revenue comes from corruption and Prigozhin's favored status as a provisioner for the Russian army. The situation raises questions about the Kremlin's stance on Wagner and its ability to control Prigozhin's operations. The Belarus base may be seen as a security force for Lukashenko, but it is risky to rely on a force that could turn against him. The failure to take firm action against Wagner has led to criticism of Putin and a reported purge within the Russian military and intelligence services. Prigozhin remains defiant and free to operate, but the success of Putin and Lukashenko's deal with him appears to be in doubt.