Europe’s dash for autonomous defense: gaps to bridge before deterring Russia without the U.S.

Europe is years away from fielding sovereign defense enablers to deter or defeat Russia without U.S. help, with air and missile defenses likely not ready until the early 2030s. Strategic lift and tanker capacity are closer, but critical gaps remain in command-and-control, space-based ISR, space infrastructure, and long-range strike, requiring intensified investment and pan-European programs amid uncertain U.S. presence.