Cuba at a Tipping Point: Can U.S. Pressure Redraw the Island’s Future?

Escalating U.S. pressure—chiefly oil sanctions and broader penalties—has driven Cuba into a severe energy and economic crisis. A Maduro-style invasion is unlikely, but Havana faces pressure to reform; a full democratic transition is unlikely, with any changes likely keeping the one-party system intact while reshuffling elites. The result could be a postrevolutionary Cuba that remains politically stable yet socially strained, as ordinary Cubans endure growing shortages and uncertainty.