Refunds on Trump tariffs may arrive in Q2, Barclays says

Barclays researchers expect about $175 billion in tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to be refunded in the second quarter after the Supreme Court struck down many 2025 tariffs. Refunds are expected to be paid via shorter‑term Treasury bills, with U.S. Customs aiming for a streamlined process within roughly 45 days from March 6. While temporary replacement tariffs of 10% rising to 15% are on the way, the anticipated effective tariff rate could be about 9.1%, according to JPMorgan Asset Management, and companies such as Costco, FedEx and Nintendo are among those pursuing refunds.