Limited Iran Strike Seen as Oil Market Baseline, Not Global Disruptor

TL;DR Summary
Morningstar views a limited U.S. strike on Iran as the base case, likely preserving global oil flows and lifting prices mainly due to geopolitical risk; a severe strike or Strait of Hormuz closure is unlikely, while JP Morgan suggests a diplomatic outcome with Iran and a Ukraine ceasefire could keep inventories in check, with Brent prices around the mid-60s.
- Morningstar Predicts Likeliest Iran Outcome Rigzone
- Trump could attack Iran in days — what's at stake for the oil market CNBC
- The White House Is Too Sure About Iran and Oil Prices Bloomberg.com
- A US attack on Iran could send oil prices surging at precarious time for Trump CNN
- Brent rises late, settles higher and with weekly gain on Iran-US jitters Reuters
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