December CPI Could Trigger Higher Yields and Bond Volatility
TL;DR Summary
The December CPI release could settle whether November’s decline was real or a distortion; with CPI swaps pricing around 3% year‑over‑year inflation—above forecasts—discrepancies among swaps, analysts, and bets hint at a possible upward inflation surprise that could lift 10-year yields and reignite bond-market volatility.
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- US Inflation to Pick Up After Muddy November CPI Bloomberg.com
- December inflation data will be 'extremely muddy' economists warn Fox Business
- US Activity Update: Signs of Positive Stabilization, Albeit Around Stall Speed - January 12, 2026 Employ America
- Will US inflation figures derail the Fed’s rate cut plans? Financial Times
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