Europe’s defense dilemma: can it stand on its own without the US?

European leaders and analysts are debating whether Europe can secure credible deterrence without US support, with Mark Rutte bluntly insisting it cannot, while others advocate a more autonomous Europe—including the idea of a European army—paired with tighter coordination to reduce American dependence. Even with large spending commitments (NATO’s 5% of GDP by 2035 and the EU’s €800bn defence plan), experts warn Europe must close gaps in intelligence, satellites, missiles, airlift and ballistic defence and avoid duplicative systems. While there is broad agreement on the goal of stronger deterrence by 2030, opinions diverge on form and pace, and a candid conversation with Washington about which assets might remain after 2030 remains essential.