Ipsos poll: 30% of Albertans back independence, but only about half are truly committed

An Ipsos “Confederation Stress Test” poll found about 29% of Albertans would vote to start Alberta’s separation from Canada (roughly the same as Quebec at 31%), but only about half of those would stay committed after weighing costs such as living standards and pensions—roughly 15–16% of Albertans. Separatists fall into three groups: committed (56%), conditional (25%), and symbolic (19%). About 800,000 Albertans are truly ready to consider independence; the rest are not. Separatist momentum is buoyed by the Forever Canadian petition (over 456,000 signatures) and Stay Free Alberta’s drive to reach 177,732 valid signatures by May to trigger a referendum, with the Alberta government having lowered the signature threshold and extended collection window.