Iran After the Leadership Strike: A Weakened Regime Without Imminent Collapse

Steve Balestrieri argues that the widely discussed ‘Great Iran Collapse’ is premature: even after a major strike decapitating senior leaders, the IRGC’s command is fractured but Tehran remains capable of internal repression and continuity. With limited, uncertain backing from China and Russia and ongoing domestic protests, the regime is likely to endure in a weakened form rather than implode, potentially sliding into tighter authoritarianism rather than a democratic transition.