Trump’s Venezuelan Oil Push Could Reshape Markets, But Changes Will Take Years

Trump’s plan to revive Venezuela’s oil is expected to take years and hinge on political and legal reforms, but could shift energy dynamics: U.S. producers like Chevron and Gulf Coast refiners would benefit from access to heavy Venezuelan crude, potentially giving Washington more influence over markets and helping lower domestic gasoline prices; losers could include countries and firms tied to Venezuela or China’s teapot refineries if flows shift or prices fall. Analysts project Venezuelan output rising to about 1.5 million barrels per day in 12–24 months—still a small share of global supply—while investment remains uncertain, with Exxon calling the plan “uninvestable” without governance changes, though Repsol, Eni, Shell and Valero indicate readiness to expand and Canadian heavy-crude exporters may face squeezes.